It's a playground, some grass, a parking lot (a "parking space" is for one car), a basketball court, a baseball diamond, and what looks like a decent paved, tree-lined trail that goes all the way past the animal shelter to a neighborhood.
> 1) it's not hard to do your own research. If you're here, I assume you know how.
What an awful take. The point of news shouldn't be "assume I'm right and the readership takes my word for it". It should help the reader come to a conclusion, because it's news and not opinion. If you have to go do your own research not to dig deeper but because the article failed to even cover the basic arguments, it has utterly and completely failed.
There is no such thing as a complete piece of information and it is unreasonable to expect every published piece of every bit of information to contain all required context to understand it. I'm not defending the Yale article's basic miss on the information, but rather your laziness on looking for more information when something came across your purview.
If someone said to you "hey, I heard they're pulling back on measuring ocean currents, isn't that shitty?" Would you get defensive and start yelling at them about not providing the "other side"? No, you'd say "whoa, I better figure out what's going on here" and make it a point to dig more, not sit there and bitch and moan about incomplete information. Yale.edu isn't a news service, it has no obligation to "both sides" a story for you.
Furthermore, what even would be the point of anyone regurgitating that hopeless pile of words the NSF's chief barfed out (apart from illustrating that's all they have as an explanation)? You mistakenly gave the administration the benefit of the doubt here when you really had no business doing so.
Hmm, not following. The insider trade in this case was small enough to not change the lines meaningfully, no? D4vd's chances of being #1 went from <1% to >99% nearly overnight, was a huge upset.
Polymarket might be different, but conventional Vegas-style lines change with the amount of $$ bet, if the pool is $50M and an insider bets $10k on the long shot, the line isn't moving -- I don't see how insider information can be surfaced in this scenario except after the fact (and only maybe then).
In other words, if the line changes enough to signal insider info, it's not really insider info anymore.
Because these markets aren't all that efficient yet (possibly because other potential market participants are scared off by insider trading charges). You don't have multiple people that all have insider information betting against each other, you have one person with insider information that cleans out everybody else. If this repeats enough, all the people without insider information will get cleaned out and exit the market, all the other people with insider information will enter the market for profit, and prices should converge to true likelihood.
And yes, the whole purpose of prediction markets is to turn insider info into public info.
> And yes, the whole purpose of prediction markets is to turn insider info into public info.
You realize that betting on an event you have insider info on is against their terms and conditions, right? So while it may be your personal goal, it's certainly not Polymarket's or Kalshi's.
But you just said "The benefit is to people watching the prices" -- but if the odds haven't properly converged what information does watching the prices get you before-the-fact?
Maybe I'm just not getting it, could you lay out a scenario?
> if the odds haven't properly converged what information does watching the prices get you before-the-fact?
How do you know we are "before-the fact"? Because these numbers are bananas?
Somebody just tanked their job, their life, for a million bucks.
Anybody who took that bet, might've individually spent only a few bucks to see that.
Everyone else (the people watching) learned the price of entertainment is a few bucks, and ruining someone's life is a million bucks.
Was that a surprise to you? If not, then the (market) prices may be said to have converged (close to) reality.
But maybe it is, and you think people would ruin their lives for less, or would pay more for human misery. In any event, the distance between whatever you think that probability is, and the return earned on these odds is information, that we all can enjoy (as benefit) before-the-fact.
> I fail to make sense of the claim that there is such an “explanatory gap.” It regards what we would understand if we were to understand something that we currently do not understand. Forgive the muddled question, but: How can we know now what we would understand if we were to understand something we do not currently understand?
Rhetorical nonsense. If I'm a student about to take geometry for the first time, I can certainly have a sense of what I'll understand when I "understand something [I] do not currently understand".
The explanatory gap, IIUC, is rather simple: we can't explain why neurons firing results in us feeling/experiencing the world. This doesn't seem controversial to me.
> a bit of experience with LLMs make it obvious that’s not what’s going on here
I feel like that overstates the point quite a bit. There's a lot that's similar: neurotransmitter release is stochastic at the vesicle level, ion channels open and close probabilistically, post-synaptic responses have noise. A given neuron receiving identical input twice doesn't produce identical output. Neither brains nor LLMs have a central decider that forms intent and then implements it. In both, decisions emerges from network dynamics, they're a description of what the system did, not a separate cause (see Libet's experiments).
Now pretty clearly there's a lot that's different, and of course we don't understand brains enough to say just how similar they are to LLMs, but that's the point: it's an interesting thought experiment and shutting it down with a virtual eyeroll is sad.
Using "cyber" as a noun there seems language coded for government. DC has a love of "the cyber" but do technologists use the term that way when not pointing at government?
My theory is this: Until recently, "cyber x" meant the same as "Internet x" (because Internet ≈ Cyberspace), except that "cyber" sounds a bit cooler, and security organizations wanted to sound especially cool, so they were the ones who used "cyber" most, causing the shift in meaning.
Cybernetics is actually about feedback control systems. The original meaning has been distorted because the general public doesn't have the background to distinguish different kinds of magic. The Sperry autopilot was a cybernetic system, as were electro-mechanical gun computers.
Sure, but that hasn't been the common use for "cyber-" for the past ~46 years, which is about ~2x longer than the time between when the term "cybernetics" was coined and the "cyber" was taken from it in 1980.
When I was like 12, I remember my fellow horny youths (or it could have been anyone, I guess!) in AOL chatrooms constantly asking each other "wanna ciber?"
That would be "cyber" as a verb, not "cyber" as a noun. Would anyone have understood what you meant back then if you'd said "I was in a cyber just now" instead of "I was cybering just now"?
Seems.... fine?
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