And there are, like, six of them.

> it's still a bar that can be passed with human intelligence

Can you expand on this?

As a developer becomes better, they become better than an LLM, being able to deal with more complex things than what an LLM can handle. Some people will not be able to pass it, but others will.

When there will ever be AGI (I don't think this can be achieved with the current architecture, it needs another AI breakthrough), then we might not be able to surpass it, much like chess currently.

Yes, we have an infinite amount of knowledge work that needs done. But if AI is better at it than humans, we aren’t going to use humans.

We don’t use chimpanzees for any knowledge work today, even though they’d be better at it than some other animals.

I think the evidence that AI is better at knowledge work without a human in the loop... is very limited.

Humans with many agents will be more productive, but the tendency has been for these models is to regress to the mean when it comes to strategic insights.

So far, I think you're right. But the rate of progress just seems so crazy that I'm not seeing any moats that look fundamental. I hope I'm wrong and you're right.

I had a Model 3 with FSD for the last few years, and when I switched to a Model Y I specifically looked for and paid more for one with FSD.

It makes both road trips and city driving less taxing. I have driven cars with ACC and they are nowhere near the level of usefulness FSD is.

You will argue with some details somewhere, but ultimately I, a customer, chose to seek out a feature. That feature is therefore not "pointless".

There’s diminishing returns to luxuries like this. You’ve found it to be worth it personally, but my point isn’t that a single individual won’t like it, my point is that most drivers don’t really need it and shouldn’t go out of their way to compromise on other aspects of the vehicle to get it.

I would compare this to a niche luxury feature like cooled or massaged seats. The people who seek out those features swear by them but it’s not good advice to tell an average person to spend the money on them, and they aren’t universally praised by people who try them.

I like watching my wealth grow in investments rather than investing in depreciating assets like vehicles. My attention at the wheel in my paid off 12 year old Mazda is free, and I’m still safer than any automated system for the time being (Tesla has the worst fatal accident rate of any brand [1] so I assume that FSD can’t be all that safe)

I also like reducing how much I drive wherever I can rather than band-aiding the problem of driving fatigue with driving automation. Driving less is a solution to driving fatigue. Taking public transit is a solution to driving fatigue. The $30k it costs to buy a gently used Tesla would be better invested in a down payment on an appreciating house or condo in a less car-dependent neighborhood. Hell, moving to the Netherlands and buying a bicycle doesn’t even cost $30k.

[1] https://www.roadandtrack.com/news/a62919131/tesla-has-highes...

> FSD will refuse to engage in those situations, often

this is not true. It will basically engage any time your foot is not on the brake, the steering angle isn't beyond some threshold, and path prediction is relatively stable (which is approximately all the time). The main place it will refuse to engage is if you're in the middle of an intersection and it's ambiguous where your destination lane is.

-Tesla owner

The world has been blessed by two connected things:

1. Smart people have economic opportunities that align them away from being evil

2. People who are evil tend not to be smart.

We're breaking both of these assumptions.

"Smart people have economic opportunities that align them away from being evil"

For some definition of evil, some of the time, ok. But as economic opportunities compound (looking at the behavior of the ultra-rich), it seems there's at least strong correlation in the other direction, if not full-on "root of all evil" causation.

Sure, but that’s not “slaughter a stadium of people with drones” evil or “poison the water supply” evil or “take out unprotected electrical substations” evil.

So much infrastructure is very soft because the evil people aren’t smart enough to conceive of or conduct an attack.

I think you might find that, if you reconsider who the 'evil' people are, you might find that we're already doing that sort of thing.

Its not capitalists doing that though, its politicians, and politicians in non capitalist countries tend to be more evil.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but there aren't any non-capitalist countries currently waging war on others.

Capitalism is a continuum, not a binary, hence occasional discussion "China is communist!" "No, it is state-capitalism!"

Is Russia currently capitalist, or non-capitalist? Which is Myanmar?

Anyway, personally I think it's the wrong axis; while capitalism and democracy and free press are often correlated, I think that the latter two are the important ones for actually choosing the lesser evils, though capitalism does generate more options to choose between.

Good. This is how we will force the world to reckon with the isolated, the disgruntled, and "lone wolf" terrorist. Real "sigma males" actually exist, and when they decide "society has to pay" we are all worse off for it. If Ted Kaczynski (quintessential example of a real actual sigma) had been in his prime operating right now, he'd have mail-bombed NeurIPS and ICLR already. I'm not cool with being in crowds of AI professionals right now for physical security reasons given the extreme anti-AI sentiment that exists from nearly everyone outside of the valley: https://jonready.com/blog/posts/everyone-in-seattle-hates-ai...

> 1. Smart people have economic opportunities that align them away from being evil

for now

This feels like a wild overgeneralization. People can become rich without resorting to evil methods, especially now with global markets and software. Case in point: Minecraft was wildly successful, and now Notch is a billionaire.

Eeeeh not the best example maybe?

Pre-wealth, Notch was friendly, kind, and downright jolly! Even as he started to accumulate wealth, he was donating huge sums of money to various indie games. Whenever a Humble Bundle dropped he would top the leaderboard for the amount he paid for the games. Things took a major turn for the worse after the acquisition and after he left Mojang. That's when he ran out of purpose and turned to drugs and conspiracy theories.

> getting an image URL are basically impossible except for McGuyver tricks

Assuming you're talking about an image in the browser? Long press, drag it to the address bar, that'll load the image alone and you can copy the address from the bar.

My experience is it doesn’t work all of the time because many websites add their shenanigan Javascripts to restrict the selection or extracting images

Alas, there's the screenshot.

I never would have thought of that.

Thanks!

Yep, I’d rather read the prompt.

Or, Anthropic has better models and is experiencing higher demand because of that.

Or, OpenAI was reckless in securing compute.

> I have a gesture for whoever decided "find in page" should go under share.

You can also just type your search term into the normal address bar and there's an item at the bottom of the list for "on this page - find <search>". I'd never even seen the find-in-page button under share.

That would be so much better if Find in page was the first item not the last.