>By the same token, there's no reason to think they'll fall anywhere near or under 5% in the near future.
Why? It's fallen 6 points since 2010. The OECD long term forecast puts it at 5% in just 2 years, and predicts it will drop down to around 3% within 10 years. This is without any serious problems.
These numbers are also based on official GDP estimates, and there are studies that estimate that China's GDP is 30% lower than reported due to padding at the local and national level.
>They have 1.5 billion people
Their official population count is 1.386 billion, rounding up to 1.5 seems a bit much. And we don't even know if that is true. There are reports that they've overestimated their population by around 100 million people.
>with a higher average IQ than the US
We can't even remove all of the cultural biases to make accurate comparisons between native English speakers within the US. There's no way we are going to be able to accurately compare countries as different as the US and China. Not to mention sample differences, suppressed scores from the children of migrant workers etc...
>strong educational culture
And many parts of that educational culture have been criticized. Regardless this is a completely subjective metric that isn't worth comparing.
>really didn't have anything revolutionary to offer
Last one regarding, for example, US developing a massive competitive advantage with the internet right after their housing market crash.
I won't debate any further because clearly I'm going to get downvoted for doing anything other than linking a business insider article on why chinese local debt is going to collapse tomorrow in the HN echo chamber. If you want to believe it's inevitable China is going to plateau in rapidly, by all means.
Don't know why you're getting downvoted, but I linked to a lot more than articles about local debt. Perhaps you could refute the OECD long term forecast that predicts a plateau rather than setting up a straw man about business insider articles.
By the way, I'm not even saying that China won't overtake the US economy sometime this century, I'm saying that naive extrapolation based on current growth rates is a terrible way to predict the future.
Why? It's fallen 6 points since 2010. The OECD long term forecast puts it at 5% in just 2 years, and predicts it will drop down to around 3% within 10 years. This is without any serious problems.
These numbers are also based on official GDP estimates, and there are studies that estimate that China's GDP is 30% lower than reported due to padding at the local and national level.
>They have 1.5 billion people
Their official population count is 1.386 billion, rounding up to 1.5 seems a bit much. And we don't even know if that is true. There are reports that they've overestimated their population by around 100 million people.
>with a higher average IQ than the US
We can't even remove all of the cultural biases to make accurate comparisons between native English speakers within the US. There's no way we are going to be able to accurately compare countries as different as the US and China. Not to mention sample differences, suppressed scores from the children of migrant workers etc...
>strong educational culture
And many parts of that educational culture have been criticized. Regardless this is a completely subjective metric that isn't worth comparing.
>really didn't have anything revolutionary to offer
I'm not sure I know what to make of this one.
https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/new-study-shin...
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/18/business/china-gdp-econom...
https://qz.com/887709/chinas-liaoning-province-admitted-that...
https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-growth-annual
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/20...