> you gotta wonder where we'll be in say - 5 years from now?
Is it possible that the market won't coalesce and will instead stay fragmented? I wonder about the likelihood of that happening. It seems unlikely that either Android or iOS will capture 90% market share any time soon, plus, there is Blackberry to contend with (perhaps the Playbook will revive their fortunes somewhat) and you can never completely count out Microsoft either, as we've seen with the recent Nokia situation.
I think there are perhaps a couple of ways this could go. First, regardless of who executes best on technology, there may be a company who executes best on earning money for developers, and this economic factor could really boost the platform - if developers start coalescing around a platform, consumers may (will?) follow. (I think iOS has the edge here.)
Second, if the market remains fragmented it is going to be untenable for many companies, particularly small ones who develop software for clients, to support all of the platforms. They'll either have to specialize in one, perhaps two, of the platforms and avoid or subcontract work for the other platforms, or they'll need to start relying more heavily on HTML5 and workarounds like Phonegap. From that perspective, it may be in the best interest of web developers to see the platform fragmentation continue and perhaps get even worse.
Is it possible that the market won't coalesce and will instead stay fragmented? I wonder about the likelihood of that happening. It seems unlikely that either Android or iOS will capture 90% market share any time soon, plus, there is Blackberry to contend with (perhaps the Playbook will revive their fortunes somewhat) and you can never completely count out Microsoft either, as we've seen with the recent Nokia situation.
I think there are perhaps a couple of ways this could go. First, regardless of who executes best on technology, there may be a company who executes best on earning money for developers, and this economic factor could really boost the platform - if developers start coalescing around a platform, consumers may (will?) follow. (I think iOS has the edge here.)
Second, if the market remains fragmented it is going to be untenable for many companies, particularly small ones who develop software for clients, to support all of the platforms. They'll either have to specialize in one, perhaps two, of the platforms and avoid or subcontract work for the other platforms, or they'll need to start relying more heavily on HTML5 and workarounds like Phonegap. From that perspective, it may be in the best interest of web developers to see the platform fragmentation continue and perhaps get even worse.