A few years before I started working, I read Average is Over. Made a good case that labor power's decline would ramp up ever further. People like to poo-poo AI, but I have been following AI since the dark times before 2012. Winograd schemas, style transfer, GTP-2, image recognition - it is hard for people now to understand how impossible these tasks seemed at the time. The rate of progress is insane and it is foolish to bet against it.
Perhaps we are approaching a time where capital can be converted directly into labor in a way that scales. If this is the case the market is ridiculously undervalued, almost comically so.
I have maintained high savings rates and acquired capital ever since I read that book, regardless of valuations. I consider my portfolio insurance against this scenario.
You put into words the vague thesis I've been operating under. Robots aren't going to take everyone's jobs tomorrow, but we've entered a period where growth comes ever decreasingly from labor and ever increasingly from technology.
The shutdown already spotlights the fact that the true economic value of non-essential business and workers is primarily as consumers.
Perhaps we are approaching a time where capital can be converted directly into labor in a way that scales. If this is the case the market is ridiculously undervalued, almost comically so.
I have maintained high savings rates and acquired capital ever since I read that book, regardless of valuations. I consider my portfolio insurance against this scenario.