> The military doesn’t decide where to invade, our government does.
I would agree with this statement when it comes to defensive campaigns. But in the case of offensive campaigns, the military very much gives the government an idea of what the plan looks like, including the budget, timeline, casualties, chances of success, etc. It's worth noting here that the military very much has a vested interest in saying yes to military action, because that's good for job security. But when it turns out that you cannot get in and out of a country in the forecasted amount of time, and when that country then goes back to its former political landscape despite all of our best efforts, that failure cannot land entirely at the government's feet.
> And the militaries goals are well, war-focused?
They are, apparently, in the US. I learned that when the CEO of Flexport suggested that we use the military to temporarily unblock the supply chain crisis by leveraging our military's logistics capabilities, which resulted in at least one person leaving a dismissive comment here on HN. I realize that this might have been an isolated view, but I doubt it. In other countries, it's very much expected that the military rolls up their sleeves whenever their capabilities can be generally beneficial to their communities, regardless if it's military-related or not. It's a resource we pay for, so why not share the excess capacity if it's not detrimental to our defensive readiness? I would argue that saving a few million jobs in the US is worth not being able to fulfill the two-war doctrine for a few months.
> It is impressive when a military can ship 100,000 soldiers and all the necessary equipment half way around the world in a month.
This once again sounds like an internal KPI that the US military can without doubt be very proud of. An external observer may ask how much such an effort would cost, and how well we compare on a per soldier basis with someone like China or Russia. Who can do it for less money? Perhaps the US is still ahead, but I genuinely don't know. Does money matter when it comes to readiness? Well, when it comes to defense, probably not. But if we're talking about invading a foreign country, I think the economics very much start to be a part of the overall equation.
A good example to bring up here would be the cost of the F-35 program. Is it an impressive aircraft? You bet. Are the capabilities of that aircraft in line with its cost? My gut tells me no, and I think a lot of people would agree. Do I have any hope that this was an isolated instance, and that the next-gen aircraft program will be done more cost-efficiently? Not really.
For the record, I am not anti-military at all. I just want to point at behaviors that seem a bit out of touch, and which if rectified would position us to have all the military capabilities we need at the least necessary cost.
>it's very much expected that the military rolls up their sleeves whenever their capabilities can be generally beneficial to their communities, regardless if it's military-related or not.
I’m not sure you’re aware of the full scope of what the U.S. military does. The Marines I know spent more time on humanitarian missions than combat ones. The Army Corps of Engineers regularly provides relief efforts during natural disasters, manages watersheds and dams, etc. It’s not too say there’s no truth to your claims but the US military is huge and with any operation that large it’s easy to cherry pick examples to make cases for either side.
The US military is pretty much a transit agency. Beholden to external forces and external corruption. Having to spend skilled labor making plans that everyone knows will never see the light of day, simply because these were asked for by someone who holds the power to ask for them. Having to abide by laws and policy that any expert in the field would agree don't make any sense.
So, basically, you are painting the US military as the hapless victim of incompetent and unskilled external forces, bearing absolutely no responsibility for any of it’s failures.
That seems like blind and dichotomic wishful thinking.
The problem is more one of impersonal, emergent, bureaucratic forces. Any particular officer, defense contractor, politician, pentagon analysist, etc ... might want to change how the system as a whole runs. But they are other groups (who might even agree with the overall goal) that will oppose any particular change that impacts their own political/bureaucratic/social power or influence. The result is an institutional inertia where only changes that fit into certain well-tread paths can succeed. Solving this collective-action problem is one of the major challenges of our era in many different verticals.
This relates to one of Hemingway's famous lines, "Gradually, then suddenly." When this a mismatch between the collective desires of a large group and their current circumstance, when suddenly there is some sort meaningful change (a disaster, a drastic court-case, assignation, etc ...) all of sudden rapid change can ensue.
I'd be really interested to know what could change the US Military-Industrial Complex. Our history of political changes and wars of the past hundred years seems to have been fluctuation on a common trajectory. It seems like we need something drastic, but the consequences of whatever is more drastic, seem large enough that they could be far worse than the current status quo. But there has to be something, I'm not trying to fatalistic here.
Yes, because when you read about the great failures of the U.S. military for the last 100 years, it usually boils down to political reasons rather than a failure of military planning. For example, the U.S. military understood vietnam and afganistan to be unwinnable years before politicians were willing to admit as much in front of the American public. The stunts in central america were all dictated by politicians for political reasons as well, mostly in effort to protect American corporate interests who had their assets seized by communist governments.
> But in the case of offensive campaigns, the military very much gives the government an idea of what the plan looks like, including the budget, timeline, casualties, chances of success, etc
You're correct that the military comes up with the plans. In some scenarios they may come up with multiple plans. There may also be other parts of the government, such as the state department, coming up with alternative plans. Choosing which plan to go with and what budget to give it is the responsibility of civilian leadership.
> It's worth noting here that the military very much has a vested interest in saying yes to military action, because that's good for job security.
Whose job security is it good for? The private who just joined isn't involved in these conversations. The people who are in these conversation are well established and in the later parts of their careers so they don't need to worry so much about job security.
> But when it turns out that you cannot get in and out of a country in the forecasted amount of time, and when that country then goes back to its former political landscape despite all of our best efforts, that failure cannot land entirely at the government's feet.
Why not? What happened to "the buck stops here"?
> This once again sounds like an internal KPI that the US military can without doubt be very proud of. An external observer may ask how much such an effort would cost, and how well we compare on a per soldier basis with someone like China or Russia
Sounds like the sort of things people in relevant committees in congress would probably ask questions about. If they don't like the answers they could probably even make some headway in getting that changed.
> A good example to bring up here would be the cost of the F-35 program. Is it an impressive aircraft? You bet. Are the capabilities of that aircraft in line with its cost? My gut tells me no, and I think a lot of people would agree. Do I have any hope that this was an isolated instance, and that the next-gen aircraft program will be done more cost-efficiently? Not really.
These kind of purchases are very political. How spread out is the manufacturing for this jet? How many different congressional districts in the US have at least one part being made there? Here are a couple articles about the government buying military equipment the military doesn't need or want [0][1].
I would agree with this statement when it comes to defensive campaigns. But in the case of offensive campaigns, the military very much gives the government an idea of what the plan looks like, including the budget, timeline, casualties, chances of success, etc. It's worth noting here that the military very much has a vested interest in saying yes to military action, because that's good for job security. But when it turns out that you cannot get in and out of a country in the forecasted amount of time, and when that country then goes back to its former political landscape despite all of our best efforts, that failure cannot land entirely at the government's feet.
> And the militaries goals are well, war-focused?
They are, apparently, in the US. I learned that when the CEO of Flexport suggested that we use the military to temporarily unblock the supply chain crisis by leveraging our military's logistics capabilities, which resulted in at least one person leaving a dismissive comment here on HN. I realize that this might have been an isolated view, but I doubt it. In other countries, it's very much expected that the military rolls up their sleeves whenever their capabilities can be generally beneficial to their communities, regardless if it's military-related or not. It's a resource we pay for, so why not share the excess capacity if it's not detrimental to our defensive readiness? I would argue that saving a few million jobs in the US is worth not being able to fulfill the two-war doctrine for a few months.
> It is impressive when a military can ship 100,000 soldiers and all the necessary equipment half way around the world in a month.
This once again sounds like an internal KPI that the US military can without doubt be very proud of. An external observer may ask how much such an effort would cost, and how well we compare on a per soldier basis with someone like China or Russia. Who can do it for less money? Perhaps the US is still ahead, but I genuinely don't know. Does money matter when it comes to readiness? Well, when it comes to defense, probably not. But if we're talking about invading a foreign country, I think the economics very much start to be a part of the overall equation.
A good example to bring up here would be the cost of the F-35 program. Is it an impressive aircraft? You bet. Are the capabilities of that aircraft in line with its cost? My gut tells me no, and I think a lot of people would agree. Do I have any hope that this was an isolated instance, and that the next-gen aircraft program will be done more cost-efficiently? Not really.
For the record, I am not anti-military at all. I just want to point at behaviors that seem a bit out of touch, and which if rectified would position us to have all the military capabilities we need at the least necessary cost.