Fundamentally, you are correct and I will agree with you. But have you tried any of the higher end digitals from the latest generation of pianos, e.g. Kawai CA79/99 or Yamaha CLP-745/775/785? Those come with some pretty serious audio setups—with 4-6 speakers placed in different locations—that can really pack a punch with the high quality recorded samples from concert grands. As someone who regularly practices in his apartment on his digital and plays on acoustics with my piano teacher once a week in a small piano studio, I can confidently say that these higher quality digitals are nearly indistinguishable in terms of sound richness from those acoustics. (I'll be fair though, I think those acoustics leave quite a lot to be desired and aren't really in the best environments, but I would bet that they cost more than what I paid for my CA79.)
Digitals will always be outclassed by a regularly-tuned decent quality acoustic that is well-placed in a room with decent acoustic characteristics, sure. However, modern higher-end digitals raise the bar quite a lot that, in my opinion, it makes the value proposition of, say, a Yahama U1 a little more questionable for the vast majority of people who aren't professionals or aren't able to set up an optimal acoustic environment at home.
(Worth also mentioning, the key actions on higher-end modern digitals are also pretty damn good these days. My CA79 does a pretty good job at allowing me to play a light legato, and I felt like that experience was quite transferable to some pretty nice Yamaha and Kawai grands I was recently able to play around with. Now, I'm pretty sure I may begin to notice the limits when I start working through level 9/10 (or beyond) pieces in a few years, but that's the point that I'll know it's time to buy a home and put in a grand piano.)
The future is in modeling, not sampling. Instruments such as Pianoteq showed that they can outclass many sampling based pianos using a fraction of the needed storage, since there is no sampling involved and no such horrible things like the same note played at different pitches.
Attention however must be paid to how the piano is listened to. Expecting the bass depth and resonance of a grand piano from a pair of nearfield speakers is clearly out of question, as would be expecting the same feeling only a keyboard physically attached to the instrument can give. Still, one can obtain a sound that is really really close to the real one at a fraction of a fraction of the cost, and space.
I'm not really a piano player but personally I prefer the sound of great sampled pianos (usually Steinways, or the Ravenscroft 275 for example) but prefer the feel of Pianoteq when playing, in a indescribable way.
My rd-2000 does excellent modeling and has a pretty decent action.
Sounds and feels much better than the rough old Steinway I play occasionally. Admittedly it cannot compete with the perfectly maintained and positioned Yamaha c7 I also sometimes get to play.
You should be able to pick one up used for 1700.
The newest highest end Rolands (cabinet models not stage pianos like the rd) have noticeably improved modeling and actions, but not worth 7x the price.
Going the other way you can probably find a used Casio Privia px 160 for $170 that has a playable action and hook up pianoteq
Newer digital pianos with gigabytes worth of round robin samples at different velocity levels, and sympathetic resonance modelling at really, really good.
But as far as they have come, for being immersed in always evolving sound and full expression I still prefer my early 80s Disklavier Yamaha U3 by a long margin. It’s a Japanese marvel of engineering - great acoustic sound, loads of solenoids inside it for self playing, early midi implementation and still looks brand new. I don’t know many electronic things I can buy today that will still be relevant and enjoyable 40 years from now. It wasn’t super expensive, around £4K, one of my most enjoyable purchases ever.
The kids are learning on it now too and I think it will still be playable and retain its value for a long time.
While it does take up some space it’s not huge like a grand, but If I moved to a larger house would love get a Yamaha grand.
Having said that, for production work I sometimes use sampled pianos - in a busy mix they sound the same and I don’t have to mic up the piano.
I guess electric guitars, pedals and amplifiers will continue to be relevant. Looking at the incredible range of boutique guitar pedals from small pedal builders makes me almost envious of future generations. The second hand shop and garage sale pedal finds are going to be wicked fun.
> Worth also mentioning, the key actions on higher-end modern digitals are also pretty damn good these days
I've bought a few $1500-2000 digital pianos (Kawai ES8, Yamaha P515). The action limits tend to show up when you have to play "in" on the black notes. There just isn't enough leverage to allow that to happen the way it does on a grand. Playing something like Bach in F# or G# is not really possible.
If you bump your budget a little, you will start to find digital pianos that are designed to better emulate grand piano actions. And further on, starting around $3500 and above, you start to find longer key sticks and counterweights and such that do a much better job at it.
Digitals will always be outclassed by a regularly-tuned decent quality acoustic that is well-placed in a room with decent acoustic characteristics, sure. However, modern higher-end digitals raise the bar quite a lot that, in my opinion, it makes the value proposition of, say, a Yahama U1 a little more questionable for the vast majority of people who aren't professionals or aren't able to set up an optimal acoustic environment at home.
(Worth also mentioning, the key actions on higher-end modern digitals are also pretty damn good these days. My CA79 does a pretty good job at allowing me to play a light legato, and I felt like that experience was quite transferable to some pretty nice Yamaha and Kawai grands I was recently able to play around with. Now, I'm pretty sure I may begin to notice the limits when I start working through level 9/10 (or beyond) pieces in a few years, but that's the point that I'll know it's time to buy a home and put in a grand piano.)