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This is going to be the route for a lot of white collar people as they lose their jobs to AI.


Absolutely. I am thinking what my blue collar alter ego will be.


I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but as a recent white->blue collar convert, (union metalworker,) tech workers are usually far less qualified than your average vocational high school graduate, way less physically capable, and waaaaay less tolerant of the sort of workplace unpleasantries in these types of jobs at the entry level. Your tech experience gets you pretty much zero advantage, and there are lots of very smart people outside of the software world that have put a whole lot more thought into that industry than you have. Consistently high labor demand meant companies had to comparatively treat tech workers with kid gloves, and as a result, most don’t realize how much smoke has been blown up our assess for decades. They start as soft, arrogant, maladroit noobs who will cosplay as working class for a couple weeks and either eat crow and stick with it long enough for their boss to not want to throw them off a bridge, or give up/get fired and try to pay the bills doing zero-entry-barrier gig work. I was fortunate enough to have been a blue-> white collar covert a couple of decades ago so I knew what I was getting into. The fantasy that a tech worker landing in a blue collar field will naturally rise above the rabble and shoot to the top is a workplace version of the fantasy where a white person finds themselves in some jungle full of “savages” and is so inherently impressive and sophisticated that they’re immediately made king.


Blue collar guy here who started working construction at 13 years of age. I concur that many white collar people won’t have an easy time adjusting to blue collar jobs. Some people do switch and thrive. Many however don’t have the mental fortitude to push through the misery of a non stimulating brain numbing endless job that could kill somebody if you stop paying attention.

There are also a lot of geniuses who might barely know how to read but can do incredible work and figure out some really difficult problems.

I consider myself blue collar even though I am a school teacher currently. It’s in my blood. I don’t especially like the work but I can do it and I am skilled at it.

My advice to anyone moving in to the blue collar world is to be respectful. If you are educated Don’t ever let on that your education makes you superior somehow. You will make a lot of enemies by being that person.

You will likely run in to people who really are quite unintelligent just be considerate and don’t get into debates with them. A lot of people come from poverty or really tough backgrounds and many are quite sensitive about it so don’t make a big deal about it.

On the other side there are many people who are quite intelligent and have the skills and knowledge of engineers even though they do not have any formal training or education.


A lot of people have been sold a lie about uni education (and willingly bought it in a lot of cases).


IF you're reading Hacker News, you're probably not one of those people. You're probably someone for whom a university education, and working in software, are actually good fits.


Agree.


Agree having made the switch from construction -> Tech job. Having sat around at least 25,000 tech related meetings until now worked with thousands of people in various roles in tech, i could count on my one hand the number of people from each tech company I worked that could qualify to survive the real blue collar world.


I just imagine random scenarios that would definitely happen— like some pallid, heavily moisturized former lead developer in $500 work clothes deciding to jockey for smartypants cred by ‘debating’ a shop supervisor/foreman/whatever about their approach to something as it’s being executed, or in a meeting in front of everyone, like they might interject about an architectural decision at a dev meeting… saying something like “well it’s basically a traveling salesman problem” and spewing some seriously flawed approach without realizing that the super is using a technique unequivocally proven superior in like the 1940s. Or arguing with an actual engineer about an engineering decision because they “read this substack article written by a software developer that puts a ton of research into this stuff.”

I then nearly die of internal cringe.


I agree. I am not naive! I would not be doing it as a lifestyle choice though. I'd do it because I need to. I have worked in a factory before so culture shock wont be there at least. I get my pay would half (luckily I am not on the US West Coast monster TC so merely it would half).


It’s far worse in the restaurant industry. We’re going to see a lot of really awkward concept restaurants and bars open and close in quick succession.


Yes. Although if we can get more robot sushi restaurants for a while I will not complain.


Yeah if software developers have anything to do with that, it’s providing the software or the money. Running a restaurant is extremely complex, specialized knowledge with a dizzying number of moving parts. Something like 40% of restaurants close their first year, and the large majority don’t make it 5.

Funding someone that knows how to run a restaurant and an engineer with food processing expertise, HAACP compliance and all that? Sure. But I was in that business in the Boston area and saw SO many tech geniuses blow through their funding before they even opened.


I'm sure there are many software engineers and similarly unqualified people in that 40%.


They don’t make up the majority of that 40%— it’s tough even for experienced people— but the majority of that crowd ends up in that 40%… or soon after if they’re good at convincing other people who have no idea what they’re doing to invest in it. The NRA (the other one) stats that I’m probably misremembering slightly are actually pretty eye-opening.

The problem is that the business requires showing the customer just enough of the labor, planning, etc that goes into their experience to make them feel like they’re getting a lot for their money, but not so much that they feel bad for enjoying it. Unfortunately, the customer doesn’t see most of that labor, and so often they think “well I’ve been to so many restaurants that I b know how they work… I could do this…” They’re almost always totally wrong.


Oh for sure. I worked in a restaurant for years through college: eventually the mildly famous chef/owner retired (staff found out by guests commenting on the newspaper story that night). Turned out he had sold it to an up-and-coming local star chef, a couple years past his “apprentice of the year award” and back from working in major kitchens overseas. We were convinced it would be dead within months: it was a 26yo chef who had never run a business, backed up by his wife (who was waiting tables for the first time ever as her second shift after a day job covering the mortgage), and his parents, who came across as thought they had never been inside a restaurant kitchen before that.

Turned out his dad had just been pushed into retirement from head of purchasing and logistics at a multi-state department store, so he ran the paperwork and it was a dream team. Mom was not my type of person but worked her ass off cleaning the whole place every day, very impressive. After about a year they were doing well enough that his wife got to quit working night shift there.


yeah. there absolutely are lots of very smart and capable people outside of tech. as someone who has seen the blue collar world "up close" (family businesses), its a different breed... the culture and attitude gap is enormous. shockingly so. most tech workers I know couldn't hang (don't hustle as hard, risk averse, liberal), but some skills may transfer, like problem solving and diagnosis, i.e. debugging.


Why is risk averse a thing. Blue collar jobs are just jobs unless you are going self employed and buying all the gear etc.


This is a great example of the perspective disconnect.

In trades, the risk is usually not financial. I come home every day smelling of petrochemicals, with minor to moderate injuries, having been on my feet for 8 hours, sometimes up on ladders with greasy boots on, climbing on, into, and out of machines that could maul me without even making an unusual sound, and carrying 100lb sharp steel parts up stairs because it’s more efficient than waiting forces the shop hands to do it.

While the risks certainly have financial components, they’re more “get cancer, brain damage, lose a limb, or maybe even your life” risks. Risk averse is career death.


At least in the factory I worked in prior to becoming a software engineer, there was a significantly higher component of physical risk than in any of the software jobs I've worked in


> buying all the gear

Most blue collar jobs require this. A mechanic usually has to provide his own tools. This can be tens of thousands of dollars just for a basic set that lets you do standard jobs. Then you might have specialty tools for specific equipment.

Even a framer or roofer is bringing his own hammers, saws, PPE, and anything else that's required. You don't just roll up to a job and get handed everything you need like a software job.


Big time money on tools and professional tools are not fucking cheap. I have about $1800 in measuring equipment alone that I had to buy out of pocket. Add in wrenches I can put my entire body weight into all day long, a drill index, multiple top-end hammers, screwdrivers, grinders, deburring tools, punches, clamps, handheld grinders, etc. etc. etc.

I think mechanics have it worse though. In my shop I mostly only need imperial tools, at least.


From above: "endless job that could kill somebody if you stop paying attention"


Cash flow and accounts receivable management is a headache for these guys


I mean, brains transfer to any job, and it’s tough to be a developer if you’re genuinely stupid. So in that respect, sure. But I’m definitely not saying that developers aren’t smart enough to do blue collar work.


> But I’m definitely not saying that developers aren’t smart enough to do blue collar work.

Fine. I'll say it: developers aren't smart enough to survive a blue collar environment.

My credentials? I worked in a factory in my youth. 12hr shifts, nightshift only, 7 days a week, on assembly lines.

Your average developer is definitely not risk averse enough to keep all their limbs. Where I worked, two people on two different lines lost limbs.

If you have ever used npm install on your daily driver without sand boxing it, you're too stupid to work in a factory.


Well to be fair the risk of "npm install on your daily driver without sand boxing" is that you might have to wipe and reinstall everything, or even deal with a persistent malware and loss of data. There's no risk of going home missing a limb. That sort of risk does tend to grab your attention a lot more.


There are some really important distinctions in the types of smart we’re talking about, here.


> you have ever

That's way too strong. I would say "if you've ever done it and had an issue and not learned from the mistake then you're too stupid".

The trades differ from software and that there's a lot more "learning on the job" and making rookie mistakes in terms of how the physical world works.

There is learning on the job with software, but it's a much smaller component and much of that is being replaced with AI skills.


Hate to see you in gray, I went from dropout waiter to Google via my own startup in between. And you nailed e v e r y t h i n g, I am screenshotting this and reading it over and over again for years to come. Great writing too. Cheers.


Haha, thanks. It’s bobbed up and down around that zero a few times. People that know it’s true vs. people that may soon find out that it’s true.


This made me laugh. “We’ll computerize it and get filthy rich! They’re stuck in 2015!”

I’m guilty of this type of thinking and occasionally get reminded when I’m way out of my lane.




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