This seems like it would be easy to structurally solve - big tech could make strategic partnerships with 5 to 10 year horizons with the very fabs in question. If they promised to spend a flat or growing $X on silicon (without easy contract cancellation) over the next decade, then the risk would be entirely on the tech companies and not on the fab companies. Of course, there's always bankruptcy to worry about, but that's less of a threat for Google and Apple than it is for OpenAI or NVIDIA.
The fact that we _haven't_ seen such deals be made, and that ~50% of new datacenter builds have been quietly cancelled[1], suggests to me that we're dealing with paper demand more than true sustained demand.
The fact that we _haven't_ seen such deals be made, and that ~50% of new datacenter builds have been quietly cancelled[1], suggests to me that we're dealing with paper demand more than true sustained demand.
1: https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intell...